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Tough sport to handicap? You bet

Just study the form, OK? Time after time, that was the advice horse racing handicapping experts gave when asked for some tips on how to come out on top at the track.

    When fans attend the races at the North Dakota Horse Park, they can purchase a racing form for three dollars that will hold the key to possibly winning many dollars.

    And a little studying can eventually go a long way. Unlike other forms of legal gambling, there are no preconceived odds in racing. The track has no advantage – it gets money from providing the service – and players go against other players.

    “I think it is a game of skill,” said Bubby Haar of Aberdeen, S.D., who will be the track’s announcer and will also conduct betting seminars prior to the races. “If you do a little bit of homework you can improve your chances substantially.”

    But telling a horse racing novice to simply read the form is a little like telling a Christian the answers to salvation are in the Bible and then giving them a Latin version.

    So what to look for amid the mess of tiny numbers and abbreviations on the form, which usually lists at least the results of the horse’s last six races?

    “For a beginner, the speed figures are the best thing to look for,” said Steven Walker of Lincoln, Neb. “And for a beginner maybe you want to go with the frontrunner. The form will have the first call position. Identify ones that are first or second at those points.”

    Great, who is Steven Walker?

    He has handicapped races since 1976, was the winner of the inaugural Daily Racing Form/National Thoroughbred Racing Association Championship in 2000, where he won $100,000, and he won $6,110.20 on a $1 bet at the 2001 Kentucky Derby.

    And speed figures? They are the numbers toward the far right side of the form, and at smaller tracks will usually be in the 50-90 range. The higher the better.

    However, Walker also said to look for gains or losses of the speed figures. So if a horse has speed figures of 70, 72 and 76 in its last three efforts, it indicates improvement and would be a good choice.

    Each horse’s career record will be listed. Ignore it. For the most part.

    Certainly, if a horse has a career winning percentage equal to the Washington Generals, don’t throw down two bucks. But its most important races – the last five or six – are listed on the form. The horse could have gotten a new trainer or maybe just an improved outlook on life and is ready to start winning.

    “The betting public will look at the career record or concentrate just on the last race,” Minneapolis resident Terry Severson said. “The way to find better prices is to go four or five races back and see if there’s improvement.”

    Severson is a regular at Canterbury Park in Shakopee, Minn. In 2001, he finished in fourth place at the National Handicapping Championship in Las Vegas.

    Bettors will have a variety of options to either win or fritter away their cash. Fargo horse track manager Les Schmidt said the park will offer trifectas, exactas, daily doubles, Pick 3s, quinellas and possibly twin trifectas (see graphic for explanations).

    Both Severson and Walker believe beginners should generally avoid “exotic” bets and should stick with win, place or show bets.

    “I don’t like trifectas,” Severson said. “It’s hard enough picking first place, much less the top three finishers.”

    The racing form also offers a glimpse at what type of competition the horse has faced. Claiming races are the most common competitions the horses at the Fargo park will have participated in. Take that into consideration if a horse has had success in claiming races but is now running in an allowance race, a notch above.

    Walker said he likes to find horses whose odds are 4-1 or higher. Severson admitted he likes longshots, if his own research indicates the odds are higher than he thinks they should be.

    “I don’t always bet the horse I think is the best,” Haar added. “I’m looking for the best value.”

    Trainers, jockeys and the horse’s breeding also come into play for bettors. However, at smaller tracks like Fargo, handicappers are going to be handicapped in trying to take those factors into account. Most people probably won’t be familiar with the trainers or jockeys.

    That’s where the veteran bettors will have an advantage as well. But don’t fret too much about not being familiar with the family tree.

    “With the older horses you’re not worrying too much about the breeding,” Severson said. “Once a horse has run 40 races, it is what it is. Judge it by its recent performances.”

    All right, we will.

    Take a look at Benza Winner in the graphic. This was a June race at Chippewa Downs in Belcourt, N.D. Benza finished third in its previous race – an allowance race – but there was no speed figure provided, an obstacle bettors at smaller tracks could face.

    The previous efforts listed were from 2002, so although the speed figures in those races increased from 90 to 94, their relevance in 2003 is limited.

    In the previous event, Benza came out of the gate in fifth, not exactly fulfilling Walker’s directive to find a frontrunner. Still, with 6-1 odds, and coming off a third-place finish, Benza would seem to have a decent chance at finishing in the top three. It didn’t. Benza Winner placed fourth in this event. So we would have been out a few bucks. Win some, lose more. “I’ve been doing this over 20 years and there’s still so much to learn that it’s a hard process,” Walker said. “But that’s what makes it fun, too. The reason I love to handicap is that you have the data available to you to do much better than other players. There’s certainly luck involved in horse racing, but a good percentage comes from skill.”

   So start studying.